The latest temperature and precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for the month of August was recently released, favoring a higher probability for above average temperatures for much of the United States and a slightly higher probability for above average precipitation in the Southeast and High Plains.
The August outlook, released on the 16th of July, noted that the cool ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and lack of any strong teleconnection signal meant that the monthly relied quite a bit on current trends – how temperature and precipitation patterns have been recently – along with current soil moisture. Overall, temperatures have been trending above average for much of the country and with little change expected in that pattern, outside of any normal fluctuation in temperature, the above average trend is forecast to continue during the month of August. The chance for temperatures remaining above average is slightly higher from the southern Plains, up through the Northeast where the Climate Prediction Center gives that area a 50% chance for above average temperatures.
As for precipitation, the Southeast and Ohio River Valley, as well as the High Plains, hold a higher probability for above average precipitation. A slightly higher probability for below average precipitation centered near New Mexico and Texas is currently forecast. Locally, there were no clear signals that would lean northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin as either above or below for precipitation – which has been fairly typical so far this summer season.