Bitter Cold Morning, Highs Briefly Warm Up Ahead of Late-Week Cooldown


Yikes. Following clearing skies overnight, the Stateline woke up to a bitterly cold start to our Wednesday. Temperatures for most bottomed out into the upper 20s, with wind chill values down even further into the teens. If your morning routine takes you out the door early, I’d make sure to dress warmly by layering up. Be sure to grab that heavier jacket before stepping out the door. And it wouldn’t hurt to bring put on a hat and a pair of gloves so that you stay warm while getting to your destination. Thankfully, this cold start doesn’t tell the tale for the rest of our Wednesday. Following two straight days with highs in the upper 30s, sunshine and a “warm” southwesterly wind will help temperatures climb closer to average this afternoon. 

Thanks to an area of high pressure currently over the central plains, skies cleared out overnight. Although that did lead to a much cooler start to our day, most heading out early will be greeted to plenty of sunshine. Hi-res models remain consistent, showing mainly sunny skies into the mid-day hours. I do think we’ll get to see a few clouds build in this afternoon, but the bulk of the cloud cover holds off until late in the evening. As mentioned, temperatures will top out closer to average with highs in the low 50s. Comparing that to average, that’s what we typically see in mid-November. Despite a warmer afternoon, “feels like” temperatures are likely to be 5° to 10° degrees cooler than the air temps. So, it might feel chillier this afternoon. But thankfully we’ll be out of the 30s. 

Ahead of an approaching cold front, cloud cover is expected to increase overnight, turning skies mostly cloudy by daybreak Thursday. Model guidance continues to show a moisture starved cold front pushing through tomorrow morning. We do leave a slim chance for a spotty shower or two along the front, but it should sneak through the Stateline with ease, not bringing any disruptions to your morning commute. Following that cold front, winds will immediately shift to the northeast, pulling in colder air aloft. Highs will fall just slightly for the end of the work week, with Thursday and Friday featuring highs into the upper 40s. However, the main topic this week weather-wise is how different the weather will be on Halloween this year compared to last year. 

Last year featured the snowiest Halloween on record, with an astonishing 3.1″ of snow observed at the Rockford International Airport. It’s safe to say that you won’t need the winter gear for when you go trick-or-treating this Saturday. Ahead of a secondary cold front, winds will shift to the southwest by Saturday morning, allowing warmer air to filter into the low-levels. That along with some sunshine will allow highs to climb into the upper 50s during the afternoon, right around where we should be for the spooky holiday. During trick-or-treat times, models continue to remain dry. However, we could see a few more clouds fill our skies by Saturday evening as that front approaches. Hopefully that doesn’t hinder out chance to see October’s second full moon. That’s right! Halloween features the full “Hunter’s Moon”. The last time we had a full moon on Halloween was back in 1944 (76 years ago). It won’t be until 2039 that we’ll see the full moon rise on Halloween.

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