First Flakes of the Season to Fall Tonight


If only we could take yesterday’s sunny and comfortable weather, bottle it up, and experience it again for the start of the Halloween week. Well, mother nature has other plans for us. So much so, that we will be bringing in a familiar s-word back into the forecast. Cloud cover due to a cold frontal passage has stuck around with us for most of our day so far. Temperatures today because of said cold front will tumble, going from low 60s yesterday, down to not making it past 50° today.

In fact, cloud cover will stick around for the rest of our Monday. Despite the cloud cover, things remain dry through the day. With that said, don’t be surprised if you run into some patchy drizzle while driving today. Breaking down the main event, a low pressure system develops ahead of a digging trough over the southern Great Plain and brings some light rain into the Stateline by late this evening. The track of this system takes it to the east of the Stateline, which in theory would put us on the colder side of the circulation.

Temperatures will still be too warm for snow to crystallize and form early tonight. So for those who can’t wait to see the first flakes of the season, you will have to wait a little bit longer. This event will be starting out as rain. The rain will help drag down temperatures further into the 30s, so once showers develop, snow will likely be not too far behind. Models are in good agreement that after midnight give or take, the rain/snow line will be on the moving eastward. If and once that line clears the Rockford area, a transition to all snow is forecast before things taper off just after sunrise. Slushy conditions are expected for the tomorrow’s morning commute, please make sure to give yourself extra time.

Accumulations look to be fairly light across the Stateline, with most areas receiving less than one-inch. However, the highest chance for anyone to see an “all snow” event and accumulating snow is to the west and northwest. Places west of Freeport and Savanna could see as much as 1″ to 2″ of slushy snow, primarily on grassy surfaces. East of that line, as much as 1″ could fall. Now, one main factor stands as to why the snow will not accumulate on the roadways. Overall, roadways are going to be still too warm from yesterday’s fall-like weather. Also, today’s temperatures for the most part will stay in the 40s. Once conditions taper off and the system moves out of the region, cloud cover sticks around into the mid-late morning hours. Then an area of high pressure moves in and helps dry conditions out, bringing some sunshine for the afternoon.

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