Frosty Nights Ahead, Rain Chances Hold Off Until the Weekend


Few AM Showers:

Before we jump into the forecast, I hope all the mothers out there had a wonderful and relaxing Mother’s Day. While Mother’s Day my have started off on a wet and gloomy note, the axis of heavier rainfall once again landed to our south, allowing conditions to dry out quicker than expected. However, it didn’t take long for clouds to increase, as a weak disturbance aloft tracked in overnight. For those heading out early this morning, a glimpse at radar showcases a few sprinkles and light showers roaming in with this disturbance. Overall, we’re not looking at any impacts to the morning commute, with accumulations remaining under 0.1″.

Frosty Nights Ahead:

By the mid-day hours, shower chances will lessen, as a dominating area of high pressure that’s currently sitting over the Upper Midwest approaches. This will help break apart this morning’s cloud cover, resulting in a partly cloudy skies by the evening commute. High temperatures will end up cooler than Mother’s Day in the upper 50s, with the radiational cooling process taking effect once the sun goes down. Clearing skies, and very light surface winds will allow temperatures to rapidly drop into the mid 30s, with some of our coolest spots landing in the low 30s.

What does this entail? The potential for frost. Before heading to bed this evening, you’ll want to bring in any potted plants, or cover any sensitive vegetation. If you were planning on doing any planting early this week, I’d continue to hold until Wednesday as the potential for frost is likely once again Tuesday night. As the week progresses, both daytime highs and overnight lows are expected to head closer towards mid-May levels.

Split Flow Aloft:

I will say though, it was nice to some rainfall make it’s way into the area Saturday night into early Mother’s Day. However, it was hardly enough to help the worsening drought situation that’s overtaking northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Looking at the upper-air pattern for the upcoming work week, split flow will help keep away any chance for the Stateline to see some rain until the upcoming weekend. Guidance continues to show the more amplified portion of the jet steam, which in this case is the southern stream, looks to swing any rain chance to the south, leaving us dry and sunny until late Friday. While there is plenty fo time for this forecast to change, a weak wave ahead of developing low over the Midwest looks to bring us a couple of showers both Saturday and Sunday.

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