The first of two systems roamed into the Stateline overnight Thursday, bringing with it a scattered round of showers and embedded thunderstorms. With activity still popping up over areas to our southwest, chances will likely continue into mid-morning, with the potential for another round slated for the late afternoon-evening hours.
Once this morning’s chances conclude, conditions look to dry out some, with skies turning partly cloudy by the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center continues to monitor northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin for the potential for severe weather, as they have left our area under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5).
The biggest uncertainty regarding this afternoon’s chances is if the atmosphere will have enough time to destabilize or recover from this morning’s activity. With sunshine poking out from time to time, that should increase the Stateline’s chances for further thunderstorm development. If any storms do pop up, these will be slow-movers as winds higher up in the atmosphere aren’t that strong. As of a result, gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be the biggest concerns, with chances lasting into the first half of tonight.
The next period we’ll need to keep an eye on is late Saturday night into early Sunday as another complex of storms looks to move in from the northwest. A cap or a “lid” in the atmosphere will keep thunderstorm chances at bay for much of the daylight hours on Saturday. However, thunderstorms that develop to our northwest look to congeal into a line, then making a b-line for the Stateline overnight Saturday. Some of these storms could also be on the strong to severe side, with gusty winds, small-sized hail, and a brief tornado being the biggest concerns. Due to the timing of these storms, the Stateline is on the tail end of the Marginal Risk, but it does cover the Stateline in it’s entirety.
Turning Hot & Humid:
One other aspect of the forecast to keep an eye on will be, yes you guessed it, the heat and humidity. Both get a nice-sized boost this weekend thanks to stronger southwest winds in the low-levels, along with ridging in the upper levels. This will help daily high temperatures climb into the upper 80s over the weekend, with low 90s totally not out of the question. Especially as we roll into next week.
With dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s, it will feel much warmer than that, with the humidity feeling the worst on Tuesday. So, what should you take away from this post. Stay up-to-date with the forecast, and take heat safety seriously over the weekend and well into next week.