You’ll want to make sure you’re paying attention to the forecast Monday morning as there is a low-end risk for severe thunderstorms during that time. Now, a low-end risk may not sound too exciting, but the threat for the severe weather will occur from roughly 6am-2pm, not typically a time that we are used to severe weather.

A portion of southern Wisconsin and most of northern Illinois are under a ‘marginal risk’ for severe thunderstorms Monday morning. This is on the lower end of the spectrum, but the risk is there. A strong upper-level low pressure system currently located over the Upper Midwest will dive southeast towards the Stateline Monday morning. As it does, it’ll draw northward an occluded/warm front, along with a little more moisture. That front is likely to stall very close to the region just as the low will be moving through. The end result could mean an increased risk for any storm that develops to spin, producing the risk for isolated tornadoes. The track of the low will ultimately be key in determining where exactly we have the highest potential for the storms to rotate, but it does appear to be very closer to the region.

We should start to see shower and storm activity increase after 6am, focusing on the 8am-2pm time frame. Isolated tornadoes and damaging winds will be the greatest threats. It’s important to make sure that you are paying attention to the forecast before heading out tomorrow morning, and throughout the afternoon.

As the low passes to the east during the afternoon, the threat will shift to heavy rainfall. Right now, a FLOOD WATCH has been issued for Rock and Walworth counties in southern Wisconsin beginning Monday morning. This will last until Monday evening. The heaviest rain threat, and flooding risk, appears to be located over Wisconsin but totals of 1-2 inches are not out of the question for areas south of the state line. It’s possible a watch could be issued further south.

There is a lot that’ll take place with the weather Monday, both in the morning and evening. Please make sure you check the forecast when you get up, and throughout the day, for updates. And make sure to have a way to receive any weather updates if you’re out. Remember – our window for severe weather will be from about 6am-2pm, shifting to a heavy rain threat through the evening.