Multi-Day Rain Event Begins Today, Bringing Severe & Flash Flood Potential


Extremely Dry June:

Believe it or not, yesterday’s total of 0.17″ at the Rockford International Airport was the 3rd highest daily rainfall total observed this month. Yeah, that statement alone provides a great depiction on how incredibly dry it’s been in June. But, as we’ve been putting out there the past couple of days, models continue to show the potential for a healthy dose of steady rainfall which looks to begin today, and last into the weekend.

Today’s Rain Chances:

A slow-moving cold front will be behind this multi-day rain event, with rain chances beginning begin late Thursday morning. While the day begins on a dry note, under a mostly cloudy sky, I would make sure to have the rain gear with you. Early-morning guidance showcases a cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving in shortly after mid-morning, with chances continuing into late afternoon.

Overnight, the Storm Prediction Center upgraded a portion of the Stateline, mainly the areas to the west of I-39, to a slight risk (level 2 of 5), for severe weather. The eastern half of the region, including Rockford, Rochelle, Belvidere, and DeKalb remain under a marginal risk, just a category down from a slight risk. While the severe threat remains low during the daytime hours, the thunderstorm threat that arrives late this evening into tonight will come with a chance for damaging winds and large hail. 

Chances Continue Into Friday:

Chances remain scattered overnight, with little to no breaks in the rain expected on Friday. Showers will once again by likely, with a few isolated thunderstorms possible. So before heading to bed this evening, place the rain gear somewhere where it’ll be easily accessible for when you head out tomorrow morning. The biggest threat by far over the next few days will be the potential for flash flooding. Even with the .77″ we’ve seen over the past week, the ground remains extremely dry. From today through Saturday, multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to track through, bringing the potential for 2″-4″ to fall across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

With how the extremely dry the ground is across the area, it won’t be able to soak in this much rain in a short amount of time. This may lead to some runoff and flash flooding. When it comes to flooding, remember…

1. If you come across a flooded roadway, turn around, don’t drown. 

2. A watch means the conditions are right for flooding to occur. A warning means flooding is currently happening. 

But the best part of this multi-day rain event is that it’ll help us with not only our yearly rainfall deficit, but also our current drought situation. 

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