Our first measurable snowfall of the month could be here before Thanksgiving.
We are well more than halfway through a month that normally sees around 1.7 inches of snowfall and yet Rockford has failed to see any since November began. One reason being the near-record warmth the month has experienced so far. Through the 20th, Rockford had an average high temperature for the month of 60.9° which puts this November on track to be the third warmest on record. In addition to snowfall, the rain has been lacking through the month as well. Through Saturday, Rockford is 1.11” of rainfall shy of the normal month-to-date total. However, some much needed rain will arrive before Thanksgiving and it brings with it a chance for some measurable snowfall.
Early Monday, a deepening upper level trough will be moving over the west coast from the Pacific Ocean which will result in the development of a low pressure system in the intermountain west. Through the day on Monday, this trough will deepen meaning the storm system will strengthen as it moves through the central Plains and approaches the Stateline. The system should arrive in the Midwest Monday evening while producing a large swath of rain. As temperatures cool through the night, the strengthening storm system will begin to drop some snowfall along its northern flank and begin to produce more widespread precipitation. As of Saturday, it appears the first of the storm’s precipitation to enter the Stateline will fall as snow and arrive in the predawn hours of Tuesday morning. Steady snowfall could continue as late as mid-morning before the snow quickly transitions into rainfall. From then on, most of Tuesday should see some pretty steady rainfall which could even last as late as Wednesday morning.
Computer models are suggesting that the Stateline should see at least an inch, if not a few inches of snowfall. However, they do not account for the surface temperature or the rain to immediately follow the snowfall. Plus, this looks to be a very heavy, wet snowfall meaning more compaction will likely take place than what models are accounting for. Therefore, it’s safe to say that no more than a little over an inch should accumulate at any given time on Tuesday and whatever snow does stick to the ground will be quickly washed away by the rainfall. Rainfall totals through Wednesday morning are forecast to be at least one inch and as much as two in most areas across the Stateline. However, conditions appear dry for Thanksgiving with seasonable temperatures and more sun than clouds.