October’s Rainy, Gloomy Start Continues, Rain Chances Move in Wednesday Evening


Rainy, Gloom Start:

After coming off a bone-dry September, we’ve been blessed to observed more than an inch of rainfall during the first 5 days of October. Considering the fact that we are sitting more roughly 13.5″ below average for the year, any rain chance at this point is welcomed with open arms. While much of Wednesday remains dry, a system to our south will bring our next rain chance beginning around sunset.

Rain Chances Late:

With no breakage in our cloud cover overnight, the Stateline is waking up to another cloudy, and well-above average start to the day. Unlike yesterday, there will be a decent opportunity for us to experience some sunshine, mainly during the mid-day hours. As a system to our south slowly drifts to the north, cloud cover will be quick to move back in, with rain chances not too far behind. 

Guidance does show a majority of our daylight hours remaining dry, with our first opportunity for a few light showers beginning after 6PM-7PM. As we move forward into the overnight hours, chances remain scattered in nature. Thursday I think will be the day where it would be more important for you to have the rain gear if you’re heading outside.

Thunderstorm potential will be a bit higher, thanks to a increase in moisture and instability with the lifting low-pressure system. While severe weather is NOT anticipated during this rainy, gloomy period, there could be a few embedded rumbles of thunder as well as some occasional heavy downpours. Once this low-pressure system shifts to our east-northeast, conditions dry out for the remainder of Friday and for much of the weekend.

Rainfall Potential: 

When it comes to rainfall amounts, models have remained consistent over the past few days, with much of the Stateline picking up .5″-1″. For those areas that are impacted by a thunderstorm, amounts could be closer to 1.25″. While these upcoming rain chances won’t help the drought situation much, I think it’s safe to say that any rainfall at this point will be much appreciated. Southwest winds look to move in for the upcoming weekend, pushing our daily high temperatures in the low 80s. It won’t be until late Sunday into Monday morning that the Stateline will see it’s next opportunity for rain. 

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