Relatively Quiet Ahead of a Very Soggy Week


This upcoming week features another active week of weather for the Stateline. Fortunately, that isn’t until the Wednesday through Friday time frame. The first half of the work week will feature mostly dry conditions.

Following a mostly clear night, clouds rolled into the Stateline this morning before sunrise, which led to low temperatures around the freezing mark. If your morning travels take you south on I-39, you may encounter a mixture between rain and snow showers. These are all associated with a wave that is currently moving through central Illinois. Due to the cloud cover, we won’t see as much sunshine as we did during the day on Sunday. Skies will have that gloomy and grey look to them throughout the rest of our day today. We also can’t rule out the possibility of a passing shower or two late this afternoon.

An approaching cold front from the northwest could bring another round of light shower activity to the Stateline through the predawn hours of Tuesday. This will be the first of three opportunities for rain throughout the week, with the heaviest potential arriving on Thursday. Once the cold front passes through shortly after sunrise tomorrow, dry air will begin to filter into all levels of the atmosphere. This will help clear out any cloud cover that’s hovering over the Stateline leading to plenty of sunshine for St. Patrick’s Day afternoon.

Really on paper, you couldn’t ask for a better St. Patrick’s Day. Unfortunately, most if not all events associated with St. Patrick’s Day are cancelled. But that shouldn’t stop you from going outside and enjoying the sunshine with high temps close to 50°. There will be a brief period where skies are going to be clear, as clouds are going to build overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. As far as rain chances go, the incoming moisture won’t arrive until shortly after sunrise Wednesday morning.

With that said, the active pattern this upcoming week won’t kick-off until Wednesday. This will then lead to a very wet second half to the work week. In other words, better have the rain gear prepared. The good news is, hopefully all the rain that we are due for over the next few days will lead to some very green yards across the Stateline. This will be just in time for the first weekend of spring. Remember, the spring equinox happens on Thursday at 10:49 PM. Getting back to the subject at hand, model guidance currently indicates a solid wave of rain arriving Wednesday morning, and sticking around into Wednesday afternoon.

While the middle of the week looks rainy, there are definitely going to be some breaks in the precipitation. The heaviest rainfall looks to arrive on Thursday as a strong storm system sweeps across the Midwest. This system will bring a warm front through on Thursday, not only leading to the highest potential for heavy rainfall, but it could lead to a few thunderstorms Thursday evening into Thursday night. Precipitation chances begin to decrease by Friday morning. Overall, the Stateline could see between .50″ of rain to nearly 2″ of rain before conditions taper off. Places off towards the southeast, especially throughout the Tennessee Valley, could experience even more rainfall close to or over 3 inches.

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