Same Story for Monday, Heat & Rain Chances Ramp Up into Midweek


Comfortable Weekend:

We’re coming off the coolest weekend in Rockford since late-May, as highs both Saturday and Sunday fell short of the 80° mark. The combination of the thick cloud cover, the rain chances, and the northeast winds at the surface were all too much for temperatures to rise. With a very slow-moving low pressure system meandering to our south, the cooler than average pattern is here to stay for one more day. But similar to how this past weekend panned out, it does come with a chance for a few showers. 

Same Story, Different Day:

The weather pattern we saw over this past weekend was all due to a pesky upper-level low that has been sandwiched between two areas of high pressure. With this storm system not having any escape route, it was hard for the Stateline to dodge rain chances. A similar story applies for your Monday, as this area of low-pressure is scheduled to slowly lift northeastward into the Great Lakes region. Guidance shows a chance for widely-scattered showers beginning after mid-morning, continuing throughout the afternoon and evening. While a few thunderstorms may accompany today’s rain chances, severe weather is unlikely. The bigger severe threat today lies to our east and southeast across the Ohio Valley, mainly along the warm front.

Warming Back Up:

So the question remains, when will there be enough “push” in the jet stream that can help us get rid of this stubborn low? Well, fortunately that help arrives by Tuesday morning as this low was shown ejecting further into the Great Lakes. Behind the departing low, a secondary system is scheduled to take it’s place, taking it’s sweet old time as it approaches the region from the Upper Midwest. Ahead of this system, warm winds out of the southwest will help bring a more summer-like pattern to the Stateline. Not only does this mean a rise in our temperatures and humidity, but it also means the potential for rain sticks around.

After a cooler-than-average Monday, temperatures are expected to climb the next three days, getting really close to the 90° mark both Wednesday and Thursday. Along for the ride comes an uptick in humidity, with dew points floating on either side of the 70° mark (yuck). Yes. Unfortunately, this means we’ll have to turn on our A/C units. As a fellow home-owner, the break was really nice while it lasted. Not only that, this summer-like stretch will be one where you’ll want to keep the rain gear nearby.

Models suggest thunderstorms look to develop along the lifting warm front as early as midday Wednesday, with chances continuing into Thursday. It won’t be until after the cold front passes through Thursday night into Friday morning that we’ll see a decrease in our rain chances. 

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