Skies are beginning to dry out early Saturday morning following a few steadier showers overnight. While skies are starting off mostly cloudy, we should see a few sunny breaks during the early afternoon. There are currently two clusters of thunderstorms on radar we’re keeping an eye on: one moving through Waterloo, IA and the other in northeast Missouri. The storms over Iowa are currently moving to the northeast, towards southwest Wisconsin, and weakening. The storms in northeast Missouri are likely to remain well to the southwest, tied to better instability and near a surface warm front. Locally, a few spotty showers and drizzle remain possible this morning.
Temperatures will slowly warm through the low 60s during the morning, reaching the low 70s by the afternoon. The risk for severe thunderstorms may then increase with the arrival of a warm front later Saturday evening and overnight.
These storms, most likely remaining elevated, would pose the risk for large hail through the night. But if any storm gains enough strength, we could see a secondary risk for damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado. That risk may reside a little further to the west and southwest of northern Illinois.
Saturday’s overnight activity should be ending by Sunday morning with skies turning partly cloudy by the afternoon. Following the passage of the warm front, temperatures are expected to rise quickly into the mid 80s. Dew points will also be on the rise, nearing 60 degrees by the afternoon. This will actually make it feel a little humid outside.
An isolated storm or two can’t be ruled out during the afternoon Sunday, especially if any outflow boundaries interact with the warm front. We continue to keep an eye on the storm risk going into Sunday evening and overnight which could again produce a risk for severe thunderstorms, but also heavy rainfall. Rainfall totals between Saturday and Sunday night could be between one to two inches.
It’s important to remain weather aware today, especially tonight, and then again Sunday. We’ll continue to keep you updated throughout the weekend.