Severe Weather possible Monday afternoon


(WTVO) — After nearly cutting our Summer rainfall deficit by half Sunday morning, a low pressure system later on today will bring another opportunity for heavy rainfall stretching into tonight. As of this morning, the Storm Prediction Center continued to have the northern half of our viewing area under a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5), while placing the southern half under a Slight Risk (2 out of 5). The highest risk for severe weather today remains to our south stretching through a good portion of central Illinois.

The system that Meteorologist Candice King had mentioned in yesterday’s post has moved over the strong ridge of high pressure in the southern plains and  has been displaced to the southwest of the region. Along with it, a warm front continues to lift northward towards central Illinois. Now, model guidance continued to show the front just falling short of the Stateline by settling the I-80 and I-88 corridor. South of the boundary instability (energy in the atmosphere) will build during the afternoon. This will lead to explosive thunderstorms late in the afternoon and evening.

For us here in the Stateline, it is looking like a few thunderstorms have the capability of taking  on severe characteristics by producing gusty winds and small sized hail.  The main concern we are watching is the heavy rainfall threat going into the early hours of our night tonight. The main system looks to pass over the viewing area pulling a large amount of moisture. While observing the models this morning, PWAT values or what is known as Precipitable Water, is the amount of water in a column the atmosphere. Most soundings had observations over 2.0″ which is a pretty high moisture content value. Models take the highest values of mositure right over the region tonight. So expect rain to be heavy at times this between 6 PM and 10 PM this evening. If you are heading out this morning and are not coming back till later today, make sure to grab the rain gear as you head out the door. Following today’s storm chances, the weather will become a bit more tranquil and cooler towards the middle of the week.


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