After rain showers late Friday evening and overnight into Saturday, we are tracking the potential for some severe weather Saturday afternoon. Our temperatures will only get down into the 50s overnight into Saturday with steady rain chances, and then we are back into the 60s Saturday afternoon with rain chances continuing on early in the morning, and then that severe potential later into the afternoon.
Rain showers continue through the morning, but we will get a little bit of a clearing during the late morning/early afternoon. This could allow more daytime heating, and essentially allow the atmosphere to re-charge itself for the storms later in the day. If we end up seeing more showers and storms lasting longer into the late morning, then we will see less significant severe potential later on in the day.
After that clearing, we see the line of storms moving into the area through the early afternoon, and these are the storms we need to watch for severe potential.
All threats are possible with this system, including hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. With this, the Storm Prediction Center has released this outlook for Saturday (updated as of 12:30PM Friday), placing most of the Stateline under a Slight Risk (level 2/5) and the rest of the area — particularly to the Western part of the Stateline — under a Marginal Risk (level 1/5).
With a potent low-pressure system passing just to the North, we will have many ingredients in place for storms to develop during the afternoon. The biggest question mark is how much instability we get during the late morning and early afternoon. Again, if those morning showers last longer and we remain cloudy into the afternoon, then our severe threat will be much lower compared to if we end up seeing more sunshine. All the other ingredients will be in place. We will have plenty of moisture, with dew points in the 60s. We will have the wind shear (changing of wind speed or direction with height) as a strong upper-level trough moves in. And finally, we will have the lift necessary, with a triple point (the intersection of a warm, cold, and occluded front) passing right over the Stateline. The biggest takeaway for the afternoon is to remain weather aware and be prepared in the event a severe warning is issued. Stay tuned with social media and on the web as we will keep you updated throughout the day tomorrow.
For more details on the forecast, watch this video from the 10PM newscast: