Last week we had the gloomy and cold weather with rain and snow for more than a few days in a row. Yesterday and today, we are seeing a lot more sunshine and temperatures into the 50s and 60s! But another pattern swing is in store soon with stormy and potentially severe weather for the early to middle part of this week.

The first chance for thunder comes tonight actually, as a weaker low pressure system brings some moisture and a cold front this evening and overnight, and there is a slight chance that we could see some rumbles of thunder amongst the scattered rain showers. Temperatures tonight will only get down to the low 40s, a much different change from this morning, when Rockford reached into the 20s!

The rain chances look to come between 9PM and Midnight, with a quick and shallow line of showers and storms.

Tomorrow, there remains a very slight chance for showers as moisture remains in the area, with temperatures into the 60s once again.

The more active weather comes for Tuesday, however. A strong low pressure system brings a warm front over the area Tuesday, allowing storms to develop in the warm sector. That same system swings a cold front around the back side, bringing us another round of thunderstorms, with the potential to become severe.

The Storm Prediction Center has released a couple outlooks for the coming days highlighting parts of the Stateline in the potential for severe weather. In their Day 3 Outlook (Tuesday), they have an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) out to our West, and the Slight Risk (level 2/5) cuts into part of Jo Daviess county in NW Illinois. The rest of the Stateline remains under a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) on the scale. While the more significant severe weather looks to remain West for Tuesday, we still need to remain weather aware.

The next day brings even more chances for severe weather. Even though the SPC does not put out their 5 category outlook until a system is 3 days out, they still have all of the Stateline highlighted in a 15% risk for severe weather within 25 miles of a given point. Generally speaking, areas under at least a 15% get upgraded to a Slight or Marginal Risk for the next day, so this is definitely the day we will want to keep eye on.

After the cold front on that system moves through Wednesday night, our temperatures shoot right back down into the 40s and 50s for the high temperatures Thursday through Saturday. We also look to remain slightly drier through the weekend.

After the week is up, the Climate Prediction Center has a high confidence much of the country will see temperatures that are below normal for the period of time between the 15th and 19th. So the cooler weather looks to hang with us for at least through much of April.

The 7 Day Forecast is showing those warmer temperatures accompanied by storm chances through Wednesday night, and then the cooler weather through next weekend.

For more details on the forecast, watch this video from this morning’s newscast:

For more details on how severe weather is formed, including the ingredients needed to make it happen, watch this video: