Despite the increase in cloud cover and few late-day showers yesterday, highs still managed to climb into the lower 70s. That rain chance lingers into the first half of our Wednesday as an area of low-pressure spirals into northern Illinois. For the most part, this morning’s activity should remain light in nature. However, a heavy downpour or two cannot be ruled out.
Forecast models kept the chance for scattered showers into mid-day, with conditions drying out shortly after. Even when the rain comes to an end, it will leave us with a chilly afternoon as highs only peak in the upper 60s. Clouds will further decrease this evening, leaving us with a partly cloudy sky overnight. Lows look to fall into the lower 50s.
By mid-day Thursday, a warm front will be sitting to our north, allowing winds across the Stateline to shift to the southwest. This will bring temperatures out of the 60s and back into the lower 80s. Along with the warmer temperatures comes low humidity as dew points remain in the upper 50s.
Thunderstorm potential Thursday remains focused to our northwest near the surface low and the associated cold front. As of the latest Day 2 outlook, the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather across portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. They have also placed areas to the north and west of Rockford have been placed under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather) for the instance that any thunderstorm sustains it’s intensity as it tracks into the area.
Severe Potential Friday:
The severe potential locally increases into Friday as the cold front turns it’s attention to the Midwest and the Great Lakes. The Storm Prediction Center placed a majority of the Stateline under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather. Storms popping up along the cold front will be capable of producing strong winds and large hail. With “spin” in the atmosphere lacking big-time, the tornado threat will be slim to none.
The only uncertainty that remains is the timing of when the cold front passes through the Stateline. One model, the GFS or American model, brought the front in shortly after sunrise. While the EURO or the European model brings the cold front in early to mid afternoon. A detail that will be hashed out over the next 24 to 48 hours. Stay up-to-date with the forecast!