Rain Gear Needed:
Although our Thursday starts off mainly dry, it’ll be important to have the rain gear on hand once you’re ready to step out the door. A dynamic storm system gliding across the central plains will be the main culprit behind today’s rain chances, beginning with a few isolated morning showers. As we inch past mid-morning, guidance shows showers becoming a bit more numerous and widespread.
Rain will continue to fall in a widespread manner throughout the afternoon and into the evening commute. There is just enough moisture for a few heavier downpours to occur during this time, but much of what we see throughout the day will be light and steady. With instability or the amount of energy in the atmosphere being non-existent, the potential for thunderstorms is unlikely. In the latest outlook by the Storm Prediction Center, a “general” thunderstorm risk has been placed for areas closer to the surface low down in southern Illinois.
Once you’re ready to head to bed this evening, place the rain gear somewhere where it’ll be easily accessible for tomorrow morning as rain chances continue. As this dynamic system slowly pushes away from the region, showers will become less frequent by mid-day Friday, with conditions fully drying out by Friday evening. When this event is all said and done, guidance on average showed rainfall totals ranging between .5″ to 1″. Cloudy skies may linger into Friday night, but the exit of this storm system will eventually lead to the return of sunshine for Halloween weekend.
Sneaky Cold Front:
Despite Saturday and Sunday remaining dry, a sneaky cold front is expected to pass on through during the afternoon Sunday. While this cold front will have little to no moisture to work with, it will help filter in a much cooler air-mass that cools own temperatures down as we jump into November.
The biggest uncertainty with this upcoming round of cold air is the strength of the air-mass itself. Models differ on just how cold the air-mass is as it filters into the Stateline, but a big drop in our daily highs and lows is a good bet. Highs look to drop from the upper 50s on Halloween down to the mid to upper 40s for the first half of next week. And as far as morning lows are concerned, you likely want to dust off that heavy jacket. At times, temperatures may drop into the upper 20s, so be prepared for a few cold nights!