Slow Moving Cold Front Brings Late-Day Thunderstorm Chances


Some of you may have woken up to your actual alarm clock this morning, while other may have woken up to the sound of thunder. That’s because a cluster of thunderstorms tracked into the Stateline earlier this morning, producing heavy rain for some and quite a bit of lightning. In fact, one of these thunderstorms did meet severe criteria and was given a severe thunderstorm warning, mainly for strong winds and small sized hail. However, this activity was quick to weaken, leaving the region with mostly cloudy skies. Don’t let your guard down just yet. The same cold front that brought this morning’s activity, is set to bring another round of thunderstorms to the area by this afternoon.

A low pressure system to the south is going to help move this slow-moving cold front into the area late this afternoon. Ahead of this frontal boundary, temperatures will climb back into the low 80s, but it is going to feel a touch more humid out there. Dew points are expected to climb into the mid to upper 60s this afternoon, so the amount of moisture is not going to be an issue. As this slow-moving cold front slides through the Stateline, it will provide the lift necessary for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms to pop up. And because of how much atmospheric moisture we’ll have, these thunderstorms will definitely have the capability of producing heavy rainfall, which could lead to flash flooding concerns.

Our late day chances do come with a low-end severe risk, as the Storm Prediction has left the region in its entirety under a Marginal Risk for severe weather. A higher risk for severe weather does exist closer to the track of the surface low, which does include portions of central Missouri and central Illinois. Gusty winds will be the primary threat from this second round of storms, however a secondary threat comes in the form of large hail with the stronger updrafts. You will want to make sure to be weather ready between 3 PM and 9PM. Once the cold front passes through, conditions should quickly quiet down, leading to some clearing as we head into Thursday morning.

As far as rainfall totals, these thunderstorms will definitely bring some much needed rainfall to the Stateline. By the end of this event, most locations should end up with .5″ to 1″ of rain, with a few localized areas getting over 1″. As an area of high pressure settles in behind the cold front, conditions are expected to dry out for the second half of the week. However, this dry stretch does come at a cost, as both temperatures and humidity are going to climb. By Friday afternoon, temperatures are forecast to hover around the 90° mark. By the weekend, expect highs to reach into the low and mid 90s.

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