This Monday morning is off to a rainy start, something that we here in the Stateline haven’t seen a good amount of since June 10th. The first wave came in as a narrow band of light to moderate rain, weakening as it made it’s approach to the Rockford area. But now we are starting to see a second and more widespread wave of rain beginning to spread across the Stateline. Depending on what this morning activity does to our atmosphere, will decipher our odds for severe thunderstorms later today.
As far as rainfall, today isn’t going to be a total washout, but it’s going to be a day where you’re going to want to keep the rain gear by your side. In fact, current thinking suggest that there will be some dry time throughout the day, along with a few peek of sunshine. Now, that sunshine might feel nice, but it could help destabilize or re-energize the atmosphere, leading isolated strong to severe storms later on. As of the 8AM outlook, The Storm Prediction Center has kept the entire region under a marginal risk (level 1 of 5). For any thunderstorm that does meet severe criteria, primary concerns will be gusty winds, large hail, and heavy downpours.
Thunderstorms should spark along a surging cold front in eastern Iowa early this afternoon, tracking eastward into the Stateline by this evening. Overall, models have been performing poorly with compiling a scenario for the severe threat later today. However, they’re now all in agreement that a narrow line of storms will approach the region by late Monday afternoon, pushing through by the evening. The main time frame to be weather ready will be between 3PM-10PM. After the cold front passes through, winds will switch to the northwest, allowing for drier air to filter into the atmosphere.
Temperature wise, it all depends on how much sunlight we see during the day today. Highs today will hover around the 80 degree mark. But once that cold front comes through, and our surface winds shift to the northwest, highs the next two days will be a bit cooler in the upper 70s. A massive upper-level low will settle just north of the Great Lakes area, allowing a few weak disturbances to roam into the Stateline. That is why the next few days will feature more isolated chances for showers and t-storms.