It has been nearly a week and a half since we’ve seen the sunshine and it looks like we’ll have to wait at least a couple more days before the sun makes an appearance. Moisture remains stuck near the surface under a warm and dry layer just above the surface. Light winds throughout the atmosphere don’t allow the dry air to move down near the ground, keeping skies cloudy throughout the day.
That may change just a little towards the latter part of the weekend as our overall wind flow in the atmosphere switches more to West to East. This will bring in a more mild air mass from the west, along with a much more dry air mass Saturday night and Sunday. The hope for sunshine to return Sunday is high, and well overdue, but the melting snow from the warming winds may actually hinder just how much sun we see and how warm temperatures will get Sunday afternoon.
The forecast for Sunday has a big ‘bust’ potential, meaning temperatures may not warm as much as forecast models are suggesting. In the days leading up to Sunday the sun will be lacking quite a bit. The energy from the sun on Sunday may actually go more towards melting away the snow, rather than warming up the atmosphere. The melting snow will add more moisture to the atmosphere that could once again get ‘trapped’ underneath the warm layer of air aloft. While the winds will be a bit stronger on Sunday, to perhaps allow a little more mixing, it’s possible that clouds will develop limiting Sunday’s full warm up potential. This could keep temperatures in the 30s, rather than warming into the mid and upper 40s. Right now the forecast for Sunday calls for a high of 41 degrees. It is very well possible that highs could be a bit warmer than that, but it’s also possible that highs could be colder.